The hottest new crash in 2019, exports of the four

The export of the newly launched "collapse four countries" in 2019 should be cautious

release date: Source: network

following 2018, "collapse ten countries", half collapse, half struggle

Liu Jie, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said that it is expected that the RMB exchange rate against the United States may rise to 6.64 by the end of 2019. According to the type of stress cycle, it can be divided into five types: constant amplitude fatigue test, variable frequency fatigue test, procedural fatigue test, random fatigue test, etc. the amplitude of RMB against the United States and Japan may be further expanded

analysts at UOB said that in the morning, Australia once collapsed, and the exchange rate was the lowest. For example, the concept of yield, upper yield and lower yield defined by metal materials hit 0.6715, although the exchange rate has rebounded to around 0.6940 again. The trend of exchange rate is extremely volatile, and it is expected to fall further to 0 In recent years, the possibility of 6715 is not very high. However, further rebound will also encounter strong resistance, and there is important resistance around 0.7055. It is expected that in the next few weeks, the exchange rate will continue to fluctuate and trade at 0 7055

analysts at UOB pointed out that the overnight pound once fell sharply close to the 1.24 integer level. In the morning, the U.S. dollar index (96.2008, -0.0805, -0.08%) fell slightly, and the pound is now rebounding to around 1.2550. Analysts at the bank said that although the exchange rate rebounded sharply after breaking the low, the current risk continues to be biased downward. It is expected that the pound will first fall to support around the 1.24 integer level, and the possibility of further falling below this level is not very high. On the upside, only by effectively recovering 1.2680 can it be considered that the downward pressure is relieved

since the United States announced sanctions against Turkey, Turkey has entered a crisis mode. On August 10, with trump announcing the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Turkey, i.e. 50% and 20% tariffs respectively, the Turkish Lira once plummeted 20% to 6.87 against the United States, the largest one-day decline since 2001

the United States is considering imposing billions of dollars on halkbank, one of Turkey's largest state-owned banks, for helping Iran escape U.S. sanctions. This blow made the fragile Turkish financial industry even worse

many foreign traders have reported that "after Turkey was sanctioned by the United States, customers said they could not make payments", "the devaluation of lira was serious, and the newly negotiated customers finally ended up with nothing"...

on the one hand, the sanctions of the United States will tighten the U.S. channel, many Turkish businessmen may not find a payment channel, and the collection of foreign exchange by Chinese banks will also be tightened, which requires heavy review. More importantly, when the currency depreciates sharply and rapidly, the cost of local importers will rise, so some Turkish businessmen will choose to suspend trade, or even suspend the payment of the balance

according to UBS's latest research on emerging market economies, Turkey's current account deficit accounts for 6.3% of GDP (the highest deficit among statistical countries), inflation 14.4% (second only to Argentina 27.1%), and foreign debt accounts for 53% of GDP (a high level). Among all emerging economies, the economic health is poor

with the depreciation of the local currency exchange rate, the pressure to repay foreign currency denominated debt has increased significantly, which has led to the deterioration of the economic outlook, further reducing the confidence of investors, so the exchange rate continues to depreciate. Such a vicious circle is very common in economic history, such as Malaysia and other countries on the eve of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. This state itself means vulnerability

in addition, as Turkish enterprises borrow a lot from European banks, if the Turkish economy falls into a serious crisis, it may also have a similar effect to the Greek debt crisis, putting pressure on the European banking industry

analysts at UOB said that the US/Japan fell 400 points in early trading, hitting a low of 104.88. It is expected that the next trend of the exchange rate will be relatively volatile, and it may take some time for high volatility to subside, with a range of 104 50。

in the impact of the sharp rise of the exchange rate between Japan and the United States by 400 basis points, jumping all the way up by 4% (the largest one-day increase since 2009), in his view, the one-day increase of the exchange rate between Japan and the United States was once more than 4%, which was undoubtedly a "catastrophe" for Japanese arbitrage trading capital. Because the sharp appreciation of the Japanese market will devour the annualized risk-free return of the average 3%-4% of the Japanese arbitrage transactions, forcing the Japanese arbitrage transactions with a scale of more than 100 billion US dollars to leave the market. Affected by this, the high interest currency, which was originally favored by Japanese arbitrage trading, immediately suffered an abnormal sharp fall, resulting in a flash collapse in the foreign exchange market

however, in the view of insiders, if the rising risk aversion drives Japan to rise like this, it will trigger a series of domino effects. First, Japan's exports will face greater pressure due to the rising exchange rate, and actively explore the use of green financial means such as green bonds and green insurance, so that Japan's economy will fall into a new dilemma of weak growth, and Japan's deflationary pressure will increase unabated. Second, the cost of tourism to Japan will increase, Affect the enthusiasm of Chinese people to "buy" in the United States around the Spring Festival - the exchange rate has risen continuously in the past two Sundays, causing the RMB exchange rate to fall by about 6% against Japan, resulting in an additional increase of about 6% in Chinese consumer spending in Japan. Third, the financial market has begun to pay close attention to the specific trend of the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market to suppress the daily exchange rate, and is ready to sell short day arbitrage at any time. "If the Bank of Japan can intervene in the foreign exchange market as soon as possible, it may be good for Chinese people to travel to Japan." A domestic travel agent joked